BANGKA BELITUNG EXPERIENCES DEFLATION, WHILE TRADE BALANCE REMAINS IN SURPLUS

Pangkalpinang, November 2, 2026 — Bangka Belitung experienced deflation of 0.41 percent in October 2026, in contrast to the previous month, which recorded inflation of 0.81 percent (month-to-month/m-to-m).

“October's deflation was primarily driven by lower prices of broiler chicken, Kerisi fish, and Selar fish. These three commodities made the largest contributions to the decline in prices this month,” said Desiana Arbani Safari, Head of the Price Statistics Team at BPS-Statistics of Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province, during the Official Statistics News release on Monday (November 2, 2026).

OCTOBER 2026 INFLATION

BPS recorded the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco group as the main contributor to deflation in October 2026. Broiler chicken prices declined by 10.79 percent, contributing 0.31 percentage points to deflation. Following an inflation of 9.07 percent in September 2026, Kerisi fish prices declined by 17.66 percent. Meanwhile, Selar fish prices decreased by 11.51 percent, contributing 0.07 percentage points to deflation.

On an annual basis, inflation in Bangka Belitung stood at 3.36 percent, lower than the 4.30 percent recorded in the previous month. The main contributors to annual inflation were rice, bird's eye chili, and air transportation. Among the four Consumer Price Index (CPI) monitoring areas, all regencies/municipalities recorded month-to-month deflation, except West Bangka Regency, which experienced inflation of 0.33 percent. The deepest m-to-m deflation occurred in Tanjung Pandan Municipality, at 1.31 percent.

FARMER TERMS OF TRADE (FTT), OCTOBER 2026

The Farmer Terms of Trade (FTT) in October 2026 stood at 170.85, increasing by 1.13 percent compared to the previous month. This increase was driven by a 1.24 percent rise in the index received by farmers (It), while the index paid by farmers (Ib) also increased, but at a lower rate of 0.11 percent.

By subsector, the highest increase in FTT occurred in the Horticulture subsector, rising by 5.43 percent, with bird's eye chili contributing the most at 1.19 percentage points. The Farmer's Terms of Trade for Agricultural Business (NTUP) also increased to 165.53. Regionally, Bangka Belitung ranked fourth in Sumatra, following Bengkulu (208.27), Jambi (194.01), and Riau (188.20).

FOREIGN TRADE SURPLUS

Bangka Belitung's foreign trade continued to record a surplus. Exports in September 2026 reached US$230.49 million, increasing by 32.50 percent compared to September last year. Tin remained the dominant export commodity, with its export value from January to September 2026 reaching US$1,523.37 million, accounting for 84.28 percent of total exports. On an annual basis, tin exports increased by 26.89 percent. In addition to tin, exports of animal and vegetable fats and oils reached US$163.45 million through September 2026, accounting for 9.04 percent of total exports and growing by 174.60 percent (y-on-y). Meanwhile, exports of coffee, tea, and spices reached US$31.01 million, accounting for 1.72 percent of total exports, but contracted by 10.23 percent (y-on-y).

The main destinations for tin exports in September 2026 were China, South Korea, and India, while non-tin exports were primarily shipped to Bangladesh, Malaysia, and China. Meanwhile, the main countries of origin for imports into Bangka Belitung were Malaysia, Vietnam, and Singapore. Bangka Belitung's trade balance recorded a surplus of US$230.04 million in September 2026, with cumulative growth of 20.26 percent (c-to-c).

TOURISM, SEPTEMBER 2026

The number of domestic tourist trips to Bangka Belitung reached 354.81 thousand trips in September 2026. This figure decreased by 13.00 percent compared to August 2026 and declined by 5.69 percent compared to the same period last year.

The number of hotel guests in Bangka Belitung reached 63.81 thousand in September 2026, decreasing by 10.07 percent compared to August 2026 and increasing by 22.10 percent compared to September 2025 (y-on-y). Of these guests, 63.52 percent stayed in star-rated hotels.

The occupancy rate of star-rated hotel rooms stood at 29.54 percent, decreasing compared to the previous month but increasing compared to the same period last year. Pangkalpinang Municipality recorded the highest occupancy rate at 34.01 percent, while Bangka Regency recorded the lowest at 20.40 percent. International tourists stayed for an average of 2.14 nights, longer than domestic tourists, whose average length of stay was 1.57 nights.

TRANSPORTATION, SEPTEMBER 2026

In the transportation sector, passenger mobility continued to fluctuate. The number of departing sea passengers in September 2026 reached 34.51 thousand, decreasing by 17.52 percent compared to August 2026, while the number of arriving passengers also declined by 9.15 percent. However, on an annual basis (y-on-y), both departures and arrivals increased by 5.16 percent and 11.27 percent, respectively. For air transportation, the number of departing passengers decreased by 14.47 percent, while arriving passengers declined by 15.58 percent. Compared to the same month last year (y-on-y), both departing and arriving passengers decreased by 14.26 percent and 12.28 percent, respectively. Cargo unloading activities at seaports increased compared to the previous month, while loading activities declined. Compared to the same month last year (y-on-y), both cargo loading and unloading activities at seaports increased. However, cargo loading and unloading activities at airports declined compared to both the previous month and the same month last year (y-on-y).

PRELIMINARY RICE PRODUCTION FIGURES

Rice production in Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province in 2026 is estimated to reach 54,727 tons of dry milled grain (GKG), decreasing by 9,576 tons or 14.89 percent compared to the 2025 production figure of 64,304 tons of GKG. This decline is in line with the decrease in harvested area, which is estimated at only 14,001 hectares, down by 2,286 hectares or 14.03 percent compared to the previous year. Although harvested area and rice production increased during Subround II (May–August), this improvement was insufficient to offset the sharp decline projected for Subround III (September–December). During this period, harvested area is estimated to decrease by 51.10 percent, while rice production is projected to decline by 52.11 percent compared to the same period in 2025. The highest rice production in 2026 occurred in February, reaching 10,649 tons of GKG.

Rice production for household consumption in 2026 is estimated to reach 32,438 tons, decreasing by 5,676 tons or 14.89 percent compared to 2025, which reached 38,115 tons. Specifically, rice production for October–December 2026 is estimated at only 1,798 tons, lower than the 7,522 tons recorded during the same period in the previous year. These figures are preliminary estimates based on observations from the September 2026 Area Sampling Frame (KSA) survey. Production calculations integrate harvested area data obtained from the Rice KSA Survey and productivity data from the Crop Cutting Survey conducted using KSA-based subsegments.

OUTLOOK

The economy of Kepulauan Bangka Belitung is entering the middle of the fourth quarter of 2026 with a relatively stable outlook amid the deflation recorded in October 2026. This outlook is supported by a modest improvement in farmers' purchasing power, a sustained foreign trade surplus, and continued growth opportunities in the tourism sector despite a monthly slowdown. Nevertheless, the decline in harvested area and rice production requires serious attention through efforts to strengthen productivity, optimize agricultural land, improve water management, and adapt planting patterns to anticipate the impacts of changing weather conditions and maintain the region's rice supply resilience.

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